A climate of uncertainty

By mid century, the northern islands of Canada and the north coast of Greenland may represent the only remaining region in the Arctic where polar bears and the marine animals that sustain them can survive if greenhouse-gas emissions continue to climb at anywhere near their current levels.

So opens a story by Pete Spotts in the Christian Science Monitor. The piece goes on with updated insights on how current and predicted climate change may shift or destroy the habitats of so many species. Understanding where species may end up settling as our planet's climate changes, and what new predators they may find in their new homes, is part of the never-ending guesswork underway in the climatological and biological sciences.

 Image source: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Of course there's a lot of uncertainty about what a changing climate will mean to the earth's lifeforms--including homo sapiens. In fact there is, in general, a good amount of uncertainty about climate change, in part because there are so many factors to consider and mathematical models to be run. This often confuses that laymen. And it can confuse scientists as well. As an example, read the following excerpt from a NOAA weather blog, and note how even forecasting weather in the next 48 hours can be a challenge. (The format of all CAPS is theirs, and don't try to figure out exactly what they're saying, but notice how different computer models don't always agree.)

MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY CURRENTLY COMING ONSHORE INTO THE WEST COAST...ALONG WITH THE PHASING OF THIS JET ENERGY AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ALONG THE EAST COAST SUN-MON. DEFINITELY DISCONCERTING THE DEGREE OF MODEL FLUCTUATION FROM RUN TO RUN ESPECIALLY THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. ONE WOULD THINK MORE MODEL STABILITY GIVEN 21 ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

Now, per that techno-discussion, one thing is sure. There will be weather, and a storm will be in the neighborhood. And in fact, within a few hours of this NOAA posting, the models did begin to coalesce ... but not with complete certainty. And so the point: People sometimes say that because scientists "don't agree" on the particulars of climate change, then climate change itself is likely not real. But that is just not the case. After all, you may be uncertain about the purpose of your life, but that is not the same thing as saying that your life has no purpose.

With regards to climate change, the issue of uncertainty was put best in a report by the US Climate Change Science Program: 

Uncertainty is not the same thing as ignorance or lack of information—it simply means that there is more than one outcome possible as a result of climate change.

But for now, if you want to add some certainty to your understanding of climate change, visit here. And expect much more to come on these pages. That you can bet on.